Regression Line

Use the results of Exercise 11.4 to forecast the values of X for 2013Q1 and 2013Q2. How do they compare to the actual values?

Exercise 11.4

(a) Using the data from Exercise 11.1, calculate a regression of X on t and t 2 (and a constant) to find the trend cycle series. Use observations for 2009–12 only for the regression equation.

(b) Graph the original series and the calculated trend line.

 (c) Use the new trend line to calculate the seasonal factors.

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